Honeywell (HON) experienced a decline in its stock shares on Thursday following the release of its underwhelming third-quarter results and weak guidance for the future. Although the company’s earnings and cash flow surpassed expectations a small margin, there was little else to be enthusiastic about for the remainder of the year.
In terms of revenue, there was a 2% year-over-year organic increase to $9.21 billion, which fell short of analysts’ projected $9.23 billion, according to estimates from LSEG (formerly known as Refinitiv). Honeywell’s adjusted earnings-per-share came in at $2.27, a 1% annual increase, surpassing the consensus forecast of $2.23 per share. The segment margin, similar to an adjusted operating income margin, grew approximately 80 basis points to 22.6%, slightly missing the mark but still within management’s guidance range.
Unfortunately, Honeywell’s stock hit a 52-week low in the current difficult market. Year-to-date, the stock has dropped nearly 18%, while the S&P 500 Industrials Sector only experienced a 1% decline in the same period.
On a positive note, Honeywell’s aerospace segment outperformed expectations, exhibiting double-digit organic growth in both commercial aviation and defense and space. However, besides this segment and slightly better-than-expected cash flow, the overall numbers were not particularly inspiring. The guidance for the rest of the year was mixed, with sales expected to perform better than initially anticipated, but earnings and free cash flow forecasts falling slightly short at the midpoint. It is worth noting that Honeywell tends to report results towards the higher end of their provided ranges.
So why should investors stay invested after a quarter such as this? Despite ongoing volatility in the end markets, there are signs of improvement heading into 2024. Moreover, the stock is currently trading well below its 5-year average valuation in terms of price-to-earnings ratio and annual dividend yield, which is currently around 2.5%. This, coupled with improving fundamentals and market dynamics, presents an opportunity for potential gains.
Speaking of improving fundamentals, Honeywell’s backlog reached a new record, increasing 8% annually (3% sequentially) to $31.4 billion. Management stated that orders are accelerating as demand improves, particularly in the aerospace sector. Furthermore, the company saw nearly 80 basis points of segment margin expansion, which is expected to continue. This positive trend can be attributed to ongoing improvements in sales mix and the supply chain, both of which are crucial in converting the backlog into actual sales. Key areas of demand are also showing signs of reaching a bottom, and while the exact timing of an upturn remains uncertain, it is expected to occur within the next few quarters.
To signal confidence to investors, Honeywell increased its stock repurchase activity during the quarter, buying back 5.3 million shares, more than double the amount purchased in the previous quarter. Management expressed their ongoing confidence in Honeywell’s performance and stated that the buybacks were driven the highly attractive valuation of the stock.
Given these factors, we are maintaining our rating of 1 for Honeywell. However, we are adjusting our price target to $210 per share from $225, reflecting a multiple of approximately 21 times estimated earnings for 2024. This aligns with the average multiple observed over the past five years.
Looking at the quarterly performance, the bright spot was the better-than-expected sales in the aerospace segment, amounting to approximately $3.5 billion. Management highlighted the double-digit growth in both commercial aviation and defense and space, making it the strongest growth quarter for the aerospace segment in over a decade. Although supply-side dynamics are improving, demand continues to outpace supply, as indicated the segment’s book-to-bill ratio of approximately 1.3 for the quarter.
Performance Materials and Technologies sales reached $2.87 billion, driven the growth of process solutions, which has experienced double-digit growth for four consecutive quarters. The petrochemical business, UOP, saw growth led gas processing solutions and petrochemical catalyst shipments. Management also expressed strong demand in the sustainable technology solutions business, with triple-digit growth in orders for the third consecutive quarter and robust double-digit sales growth.
Safety And Productivity Solutions faced challenges, with sales declining nearly 30% to $190 million in Q3. This decrease was primarily attributed to lower volumes in the warehouse and workflow solutions, as well as the productivity solutions and services sub-segments. However, management anticipates improvement in the productivity solutions and services segment as the distributor destocking cycle approaches its end.
Honeywell Building Technologies experienced 4% annual organic growth in building solutions, which offset the 3% organic decline in products. Building solutions sales amounted to $382 million and were driven growth in building projects, with orders increasing nearly 20% year-over-year.
In terms of guidance, Honeywell’s full-year targets represent slight decreases in sales and organic growth at the midpoint, a slight increase in segment margin at the midpoint, and no change in earnings and free cash flow at the midpoint. The expected headwind of pension liabilities is impacting earnings performance for both the full year and the fourth quarter, with an estimated impact of 14 cents per share and 55 cents per share, respectively. Although the full-year outlook fell short at the midpoint for earnings and free cash flow, the provided ranges still bracket estimates. Management’s tendency to report results towards the higher end of provided ranges suggests that achieving or surpassing these estimates is possible if the economy remains resilient throughout the rest of the year.
Looking ahead to 2024, Honeywell hasn’t provided a specific quantitative outlook yet. However, based on their optimistic view, the company expects continued improvement in fundamentals. Factors such as fleet growth, automation and infrastructure investments, the energy transition, and the strength of digitization are expected to contribute to growth, margin expansion, and cash growth in line with or exceeding earnings-per-share growth. Management has also emphasized a focus on a robust M&A pipeline as a capital deployment strategy.
Additionally, the reorganization plans led new Honeywell CEO Vimal Kapur will be worth monitoring in the coming year. The implementation of new segments, including Aerospace Technologies, Industrial Automation, and Building Automation, is set to begin in the first quarter of 2024.
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