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In January, OPEC+ crude output witnessed a decline of 340,000 b/d, attributed partly to voluntary cuts implemented some members and disruptions in Libya’s largest oil field due to protests.
Despite this significant reduction, several members, including Iraq, Kazakhstan, the UAE, and Kuwait, failed to meet their agreed-upon targets.
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Meanwhile, 10 Russia-led allies, constituting OPEC+, saw a modest decrease of 30,000 b/d month-on-month, totaling 14.72 million b/d in January.
The drop in production was primarily driven slight declines in Omand Russian output.
Several factors contributed to the production decline, including protests leading to the shutdown of Libya’s Sharara oil field, as well as voluntary cuts Kuwait and Iraq.
Despite agreeing to significant output reductions at the last OPEC+ meeting, both countries exceeded their quotas in January.
Additionally, Nigeria and Algeria witnessed slight declines in production, with Algeria successfully completing its voluntary reductions agreed upon last year.
Notably, the UAE registered an increase in production following a long-awaited baseline increase granted under the OPEC+ deal in November.
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The failure to meet targeted reductions underscores challenges in achieving consensus and compliance within the coalition.
The shortfall in January’s production cuts may impact OPEC+’s market share, especially amidst surging crude output from non-OPEC countries like the US, Canada, Guyana, and Brazil.
Despite facing market uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ remains committed to stabilizing the market and improving the outlook for crude prices.
As the alliance prepares for its next meeting in June, compliance with agreed-upon cuts is expected to remain a contentious issue.
Despite calls for deeper cuts, internal discrepancies and production fluctuations among member states continue to pose challenges to OPEC+’s market stabilization efforts.
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