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A recent study conducted German scientists suggests otherwise, indicating that as
Notably, the study reveals that inflationary pressures are more pronounced in hotter areas and seasons. Consequently, regions in the Global South, including India, may face more severe economic repercussions compared to Europe and North America.
Published in the reputed journal Nature, the study analysed monthly price fluctuations of food and various commodities, alongside temperature trends and other climate factors across 121 nations since 1996.
The researchers projected that weather and climate shocks could lead to a 1.5 to 1.8 percentage point annual increase in food costs within the next decade, with even steeper hikes expected in regions like the Middle East, where temperatures are already soaring. These percentage points signify the anticipated rise in prices.
By 2035, this could translate to an uptick in overall inflation rates 0.8 to 0.9 percentage points, solely attributable to climate change and
The cascading impact of climate-induced price hikes will pose notable challenges for entities like the U.S. Federal Reserve or the Reserve Bank of India, which actively combat inflation, forcing them to consider climate change as a crucial aspect of economic policy.
Looking ahead to 2060, the study predicts a further surge in climate-induced inflation, with
Climate economist
Moreover, the economists at the
While discussions on inflation and climate change often revolve around surging energy costs due to mitigation efforts, the study highlights a broader spectrum of challenges, including productivity shocks and reduced
The analysis underscores the repercussions witnessed during Europe’s 2022 heatwave, where food supplies were adversely affected, leading to a two-thirds of a percentage point rise in food prices and a one-third of a percentage point spike in overall inflation. Certain regions like Romania, Hungary and southern Europe experienced even sharper price hikes.
As these findings highlight the formidable challenge posed the looming climate-driven inflation, they also underscore the need for policymakers, economists and environmental advocates to develop resilient strategies that safeguard against future disruptions and ensure a sustainable path forward for our global economy.
The study was recently published in the journal Nature and can be accessed here.