Warmer temperatures and above-average precipitation levels are expected across different regions of the United States this winter, thanks to the arrival of El Niño. According to the National Weather Service, El Niño occurs every two to seven years when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean warm up, impacting weather patterns globally.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that the northern US, including Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and northern New England, is likely to experience warmer temperatures than usual from December to February. The upper Midwest, California, and parts of the South are also expected to have above-average temperatures. This outlook is supported the NOAA’s seasonal temperature forecast for the 2023-2024 winter.
Conversely, the southern US is projected to have a wetter winter season, with the highest chances of above-average precipitation in Florida, southern Georgia, and southern Alabama. The West, Southern Plains, and Southeast regions are also forecasted to receive more rainfall. The NOAA’s seasonal precipitation outlook further illustrates these predictions.
El Niño’s arrival is also expected to impact drought conditions in the US. While ongoing droughts in the northern Rockies, northern Great Plains, and parts of the Southwest are likely to persist from October to January, droughts in parts of the South and lower Midwest may see improvements or even disappear entirely, according to NOAA’s seasonal drought outlook.
Overall, this winter’s El Niño has a 30% chance of being as strong as or stronger than previous influential El Niño events, such as those in the 1997-98 and 2015-16 winters, as stated NOAA. It marks the first El Niño in four years and is poised to have significant effects on winter weather patterns across the United States.
As winter approaches, individuals and communities in these regions should stay informed about the potential impacts of El Niño and take necessary precautions to ensure their safety and well-being.
Image sources:
– The NOAA’s seasonal temperature outlook for the 2023-2024 winter: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA
– The NOAA’s seasonal precipitation outlook for the 2023-24 winter: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA
– The NOAA’s seasonal drought outlook for October 2023 through January 2024: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA