Nepal, known for its location on the earthquake-prone Himalayan seismic zone, is facing a potential threat of a major earthquake in its western mountainous region, according to a seismologist. The government’s post-disaster needs assessment (PDNA) report ranks Nepal as the 11th most earthquake-prone country globally. The recent 6.4 magnitude earthquake that struck Nepal’s western mountainous region late on Friday was just one of over 70 earthquakes recorded in the country in 2023. The temblor caused at least 140 fatalities, reminding people of the devastating earthquake in 2015.
The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates beneath the surface has been accumulating significant energy, causing the seismic activity in Nepal. As a result of its location at the boundary of these two plates, Nepal experiences frequent earthquakes. The seismologist Bharat Koirala explains that Western Nepal is particularly at risk, as it has not experienced a major earthquake in over 520 years. This accumulation of energy is released through earthquakes, which are the only means to release this stored energy.
The Himalayas, the youngest mountain ranges in the world, are the result of the collision between the Eurasian and Indian plates. The constant tectonic movement contributes to the evolution and growth of the Himalayas, with an advancement of two meters every century. This movement releases elastic energy stored in geological faults within the Earth’s crust, leading to sudden shifts and earthquakes.
Data from the Earthquake Monitoring and Research Centre reveals that 70 earthquakes with a magnitude of 4.0 and above have occurred in Nepal since January 1, 2023. Among these, 13 earthquakes were between magnitudes 5 and 6, while three surpassed magnitude 6.0. It is a regular occurrence for Nepal to experience two or more small to moderate magnitude earthquakes daily as a means of releasing accumulated energy from tectonic plate movements.
While there have been no recent significant earthquakes in the Jajarkot area of western Nepal, the potential for a larger earthquake remains. The seismologist emphasizes that the timing and intensity of future earthquakes cannot be predicted. In October, a 6.1 magnitude earthquake struck Dhading district near Kathmandu, causing damage to 20 houses. Additionally, a 6.3 magnitude earthquake and several smaller earthquakes between magnitudes 4 and 5 hit Bajhang district, resulting in minimal damage.
In 2015, a devastating 7.8 magnitude earthquake and subsequent aftershocks claimed approximately 9,000 lives and injured nearly 22,000 people in Nepal. The disaster also left 3.5 million people displaced from their homes. The high levels of seismic activity in Nepal highlight the ongoing need for preparedness and risk mitigation measures in the region.